URBANA, Ill. – The beef industry stands alone in 2015 in its continued reduction in supplies available to consumers. The year 2014 was a special year for the animal production industries with record-high farm-level prices for cattle, hogs, broilers, turkeys, milk, and eggs. For 2015, a surprisingly fast expansion of poultry, pork, and milk production will cause lower prices for those commodities. Purdue University Extension economist Chris Hurt says beef stands alone in the continuation toward lower production, but prices remain uncertain.
“In the first four months of this year, beef production was down by 5 percent, with slaughter numbers down 7 percent but market weights up 2 percent,” Hurt said. “The reduction is the result of a beef cow herd that had been in decline from 2006, reaching its low point in 2014. Expansion of the beef cow herd began in the last half of 2014, and current indications are that the expansion continues. Producers can increase cow numbers both by retaining heifers and by keeping older cows for another cycle when they normally would have gone to market. Slaughter of females so far this year indicates producers are doing both. Heifer slaughter last year was down 8 percent. So far this year heifer slaughter remains down 7 percent. Beef cow slaughter in 2014 was down 18 percent and remains down 17 percent so far this year. While these producer behaviors will build the beef cow herd and eventually increase beef production, the impact for this year is to pull down beef production,” Hurt said.
According to Hurt, meat availability per person had fallen by about 20 pounds from 2007 to 2014, but is making a sharp comeback in 2015. Current USDA estimates are that per capita meat availability could surge by nearly nine pounds this year. Chicken and turkey lead the way with over five pounds of increase. Pork adds an impressive increase of nearly four pounds per person. “This means that the meat industry in one year has restored about 45 percent of the lost meat availability from 2007 to 2014,” he said. The impacts of avian influenza will likely reduce poultry meat production in 2015 but are not included here.
The recent Cattle on Feed report from USDA also shows some of the adjustments the beef industry is making. The number of heifers in feedlots as of April 1 was down 10 percent from previous year levels, most likely confirming a high rate of heifer retention for herd expansion.
As a result of record-high calf prices and weak live-cattle futures prices, fewer lightweight calves are moving to feedlots as producers keep those calves on forage diets and background them for longer. The number of calves under 700 pounds entering feedlots in March was down 11 percent, but the number over 800 pounds was up 16 percent. Hurt said 40 percent of all placements in March were older calves that were 800 pounds and higher. Improved pasture conditions in the Central and Southern Plains provides some of the explanation, but there were also reports of calves staying on winter wheat pasture further into the spring this year.
What are the implications for cattle prices this year?
First, a review of the unusual year of 2014, when finished steers averaged a record high $155 per hundredweight.
“The normal seasonal price pattern for finished cattle is to peak in late March or early April, then move lower into mid to late summer, with a rally into the end of the year,” Hurt said. “In 2014, finished steer prices began the year at $140 and pretty much moved higher throughout the year, peaking above $170 in late November. So far this year, finished steers have averaged $161.50 compared with $146 for the same period in 2014.”
Live cattle futures are suggesting a return to a more normal seasonal price pattern this year.
“Peak finished steer prices in 2015 to date came in early April in the mid-$160s and have declined since,” Hurt said. “The futures tone stays weak through summer with prices falling to the middle $140s by the end of summer and then rallying to the low $150s toward the end of the year. With prices so far this year and futures estimates for the remainder of the year, finished steers would average $153, a couple of dollars lower than 2014.”
USDA forecasters in the April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report have taken a much more bullish path with $163.50 at the mid-point of their annual estimated range.
Also of note is that USDA analysts increased the potential range of prices as the year progresses, Hurt said. “One reason to increase a price forecast range is because of greater uncertainty. Ultimately, prices may be somewhere between these two. Current high $150s prices could drop to the very low $150s by late summer and recover to the mid-$150s by the end of the year, with annual prices near last year’s $155. One thing seems certain—2014 was an extraordinary year for the animal industries. Consequently, comparing this year’s prices to last year’s prices may bring inherent dangers. But the beef industry is the only one that will not increase production this year and therefore has a reasonable chance of seeing annual price averages near 2014 levels.
Hurt said the wide difference of opinions about cattle prices for the remainder of this year point out the large price risks for cattle finishers.
“Cattle feeders already have record amounts of money invested in the cattle in their feedlots,” Hurt said. “Even with the lowest feed prices in five years, they are vulnerable to weak live cattle prices as the futures market is currently suggesting. Feedlot managers should strive to price calves based on budgets using current futures prices and then should look to hedge those cattle with either futures or put options. If feedlot managers find themselves bidding so much for calves that they have to have a sizable rally in the live cattle futures to cover costs, they may want to rethink buying the calves in the first place,” he said.
Are we exterminating one African elephant by not recognizing two?
URBANA, Ill. - Within the past week, Thailand officials seized seven tons of ivory, representing the slaughter of hundreds of African elephants for illegal trade. While recent reports say that poaching far exceeds population growth, some conservation groups contend that population growth in some regions compensates for poaching losses in others, despite the fact that each area is populated by a different species of African elephant.
“By not recognizing two species, these organizations may be condemning the African forest elephant to extinction,” said University of Illinois animal sciences professor Alfred Roca, who co-authored the recent literature review, “Elephant Natural History: A Genomic Perspective.” Roca is also a member of the Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology.
“The two African elephants diverged about six million years ago,” said Roca, a leading expert in the genetic differences between the two species. “It's like saying, ‘We increased the lion population, which will more than make up for the fact that tigers are going extinct.’”
To put that six-million-year difference in perspective, humans and chimps diverged about the same time (some experts estimate six to eight million years ago), while humans and Neanderthals split just half to three quarters of a million years ago.
Citing a need to protect hybrids and encompass all populations, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) recognizes one species of African elephant (Loxodonta africana), which is listed as vulnerable. Yet the IUCN goes on to imply that population growth in Eastern and Southern Africa outweighs losses in Central Africa.
Although elephant populations may at present be declining in parts of their range, major populations in Eastern and Southern Africa, accounting for over two-thirds of all known elephants on the continent, have been surveyed, and are currently increasing at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent per annum (Blanc et al., 2005, 2007). As a result, more than 15,000 elephants are estimated to have been recruited into the population in 2006 and, if current rates of increase continue, the number of elephants born in these populations between 2005 and 2010 will be larger than the currently estimated total number of elephants in Central and West Africa combined. In other words, the magnitude of ongoing increases in Southern and Eastern Africa will likely outweigh the magnitude of any likely declines in the other two regions (IUCN Red List account of Loxodonta africana).
“They are not recognizing the forest elephant as a separate species despite all the research that has definitively established this,” said Roca, referring to 15 years of genetic and morphological (physical) studies that have confirmed that there are two species of African elephants, dozens of which are cited in the literature review.
“Many other conservation groups do not differentiate between the two species,” said Ronald Nowak, author of Walker’s Mammals of the World, which will include the two species in the next edition. “The species are not shown as separate entities on the official United States List of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife or on the appendices to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES).”
Today experts recognize African savanna elephants, or Loxodonta africana, which are found in Eastern and Southern Africa, and African forest elephants, or Loxodonta cyclotis, which are found in Central and West Africa where poaching pressures are the most severe.
“To my knowledge, all the evidence, now a very large amount, supports two species, and no evidence supports one or more than two species,” said Nick Georgiadis, a co-author of the review and research scientist at the Puget Sound Institute. “And it’s not as if the DNA evidence contradicted prior non-DNA evidence. There never was any objective evidence supporting one species, just a few subjective preferences that became dogma.”
The review’s authors argue that the two species of African elephants must be “treated as distinct units for conservation” and go on to discuss how genetics can influence conservation, including the use of DNA forensics to trace the origin of confiscated ivory.
More than 20,000 African elephants are killed every year for their ivory, according to an analysis by CITES MIKE Program (Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants). In the last decade, one study has shown that Central Africa has lost 62 percent of its elephants; that’s more than half of the forest elephant species.
“While the IUCN continues to recognize only one species, such deep genetic divergence makes it very easy to distinguish forest from savanna elephant ivory,” said Georgiadis.
Researchers use DNA forensics to help conservation and law officials understand the strategies used to smuggle ivory across borders to black markets in Asian countries, including Thailand, Vietnam, and China. Officials can use this knowledge to allocate limited funds for interventions in areas under poaching pressure or along the trade route.
“But until China and other countries do something to crack down on the ivory trade,” Roca said, “all the forensics in the world aren't going to stop elephants from being poached.”
“Elephant Natural History: A Genomic Perspective,” is available online (DOI: 10.1146/annurev-animal-022114-110838) and was also co-authored by University of Illinois’s Yasuko Ishida, a research specialist; Adam Brandt, a postdoctoral research associate; Neal Benjamin, a veterinary student; and Kai Zhao, a graduate student.
Illinois Wheat Association hosting wheat tour
URBANA, Ill. - The Illinois Wheat Association will host the Southern Illinois Winter Wheat Tour Thursday, May 21, giving Illinois wheat growers an opportunity to tour winter wheat fields and make observations that will factor into yield estimates of the 2015 winter wheat crop.
Fred Kolb, University of Illinois professor of small grain breeding; Emerson Nafziger, U of I professor and Extension agronomist; and Robert Bellm, U of I Extension educator in commercial agriculture and crops, will be on hand to discuss wheat development and wheat diseases.
The tour will include field checks during the day with an evening report session at Brownstown Agronomy Research Center in Fayette County. Prior to the evening meal, yield estimates will be calculated, and attendees will have an opportunity to view wheat variety and seed treatment trials.
Tour participants will meet at 9 a.m. at one of four locations:
- Siemer Milling Co., 111 W. Main St., Teutopolis, 217-857-3131
- Mennel Milling Co. of Illinois, 415 E. Main St., Mt. Olive, 217-999-2161
- Wehmeyer Seed Co., 7167 Highbanks Rd., Mascoutah, 618-615-9037
- Wabash Valley Services Co., 1562 Illinois 1, Carmi, 812-483-2966
Participants are asked to call in advance with the location from which they would like to depart. Reservations can be made for dinner by contacting Charlene Blary at 309-557-3619 or firstname.lastname@example.org by May 15.
Those wishing to bring samples of their own and join the group for the dinner and wrap-up are asked to RSVP by May 15. The Illinois Wheat Association will provide the tour instructions to those bringing independent samples to ensure sampling procedures are consistent. Instructions can be found on the Illinois Wheat Association website at http://www.illinoiswheat.org/events.html.
Should you go gluten-free? May is Celiac Disease Awareness Month
URBANA, Ill. – Many people adopt radical eating patterns—green-foods-only diets, juice diets, no-sugar diets, and gluten-free diets—in hopes of a quick weight fix. Gluten-free diets have become increasingly popular in the past decade, but do they actually do more harm than good?
“Unless there is a medical need, researchers say that removing gluten from the diet may not result in weight loss. Gluten-free foods often contain a higher amount of fat and carbohydrates so they are higher in calories,” said Lisa Peterson, a University of Illinois Extension nutrition and wellness educator.
Eliminating gluten unnecessarily can cause deficiencies in nutrients such as folate, magnesium, calcium, iron, fiber, zinc, and B-complex vitamins, she added.
“However, people who have been diagnosed with celiac disease or gluten sensitivity need to follow a strict gluten-free diet. It’s the only treatment,” Peterson explained.
May is National Celiac Disease Awareness month, she added. The American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy defines celiac disease as an autoimmune disorder that damages the small intestine and interferes with nutrient absorption when gluten is consumed. People with a gluten sensitivity may experience symptoms that are similar to celiac disease, but they do not experience digestive damage or develop other long-term health complications.
“Gluten is a protein found not only in wheat, but in rye, barley, and triticale, a wheat-barley hybrid, as well. When a person with celiac disease consumes gluten, it damages the villi, small hair-like projections in the small intestine that help with nutrient absorption,” she said.
Fewer than 1 percent of Americans have celiac disease and symptoms can vary, Peterson said.
“Symptoms for celiac disease could include weight loss, joint pain, tiredness, anemia, rashes, and other gastrointestinal discomfort such as nausea, stomach pain, and vomiting,” she noted.
Undiagnosed celiac disease can lead to long-term health effects, including malnutrition, infertility, nervous system disorders, early-onset osteoporosis, and gastrointestinal cancers. Diagnosis can be made through a blood test and an endoscopy in which a small sample of the small intestine is taken for testing, she said.
Individuals with celiac disease must follow a gluten-free diet to allow their small intestine to heal and reduce the risk of long-term health effects, she added.
“Read food labels to make thoughtful food choices. Products labeled certified gluten-free contain less than 20 parts per million of gluten. And, keep in mind, just because a product is labeled wheat-free does not guarantee that it is gluten-free. Don’t be afraid to contact the product manufacturers with questions,” Peterson advised.
Research charts a course for increasing edamame acreage in the Midwest
URBANA, Ill. – While consumer demand for edamame or vegetable soybean remains on the rise in the United States, it’s not widely grown in this country. Nearly 85 million acres of grain-type soybean were grown in the U.S. in 2014, yet edamame imported from Asia appears to dominate what we eat in this country, said a University of Illinois crop scientist.
There have been limitations to growing edamame in the U.S. Midwest, including little research on the cultivars that could be used here and how to grow the crop sustainably, explained Marty Williams, who is also an ecologist with USDA-Agricultural Research Service.
But interest among U.S. vegetable processors in edamame prompted Williams and his team to take a closer look at the differences in growth and development between grain-type soybean and edamame, with the intent to identify specific improvements needed to grow more edamame in the Midwest.
Edamame seeds contain all the essential amino acids, which is unique to a vegetable crop. It is high in dietary fiber and most of the fats in edamame are unsaturated. Often marketed as a healthy snack food, edamame requires minimal processing and preparation.
“Vegetable growers are largely borrowing practices used in grain-type soybean production. We were curious how edamame plants compare to soybean in terms of field performance metrics such as emergence, growth, and development,” Williams said.
“Also, in order to sustain edamame production on a commercial scale, certain downstream criteria must be met. For instance, consumers demand large, tasty seeds. The last few years, we’ve assembled a diverse collection of edamame germplasm available for use in the U.S., so we decided to identify which lines met criteria essential for domestic, commercial production,” he added.
During three years of field trials using 136 edamame lines from 22 different commercial and private sources, Williams observed that seed germination and emergence of edamame is poorer than that of grain-type soybean. “That’s a real challenge,” Williams said. “What makes a seed delicious to eat can make for a miserable seed to produce a plant.”
Interestingly, the researchers found that seedlings of edamame, once or “if” emerged, tend to grow quicker than grain-type soybean. “This is also good to know as it may have implications related to weeds,” Williams said. “We know from previous research that larger seeds of grain-type soybean tend to be more competitive with weeds. While in recent years we’ve made progress on broadening the suite of weed management tools available to vegetable growers, crop interference with weeds is a valuable component of multi-tactic weed management systems.”
The edamame crop is harvested near the “full seed” stage, when the plant is still completely green and the seeds fill the pods to capacity. By that point in time, compared to grain-type soybean, Williams said edamame plants tend to be smaller. This is beneficial for commercial production because shorter plants are needed for mechanical harvest.
Soybean is photoperiod sensitive, meaning that day length influences development time and plant size. In Illinois, some cultivars produce too large and bushy of a plant for effective machine harvest, Williams explained.
Along with emergence, plant size, and seed traits, the edamame lines also underwent a basic “sensory evaluation.” This included characteristics essential to keeping the discriminating consumer happy: two to three seeds per pod, green pods and seeds, no blemishes, a smooth seed texture, and seeds with a sweet, nutty flavor.
Of the 136 lines tested, twelve lines from eight different sources passed all criteria: above-average field emergence, suitable plant size for mechanical harvest, large seeds, and passing the sensory evaluation. “This process identified edamame lines that might be most promising for use in the Midwest,” Williams said.
Williams said his team will continue to work on the emergence issue. “Emergence must be improved,” he said. “Some of that may require efforts in plant breeding, but it may also mean we need to grow the crop a bit differently than grain-type soybean, too.”
“Phenomorphological characterization of vegetable soybean germplasm lines for commercial production” was recently published in Crop Science.
Alex McBratney: Global Soil Security Initiative
Dr. Alex McBratney is Pro-Dean of the College of Agriculture and Environment, Professor of Soil Science and Head of the Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, and the International Union of Soil Science’s 2014 VV Dokuchaev Medal in Soil Science recipient.
The lecture will be followed by Q&A.
Team Illinois named Grand Winner Finalist in US DOE Race to Zero Competition
URBANA, Ill. - The Illinois Solar Decathlon team has been named one of five Grand Winner Finalists in the 2015 U.S. Department of Energy Race to Zero Student Design Competition. The competition took place April 18-20, 2015, at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado.
Thirty-three teams from 27 universities competed to design, analyze, and document a net-zero energy and net-zero water ready home that is cost-effective and consistent with mainstream builder construction practices. The total amount of energy used in a net-zero energy home on an annual basis is equivalent to or less than the amount of renewable energy created on the site. A net-zero water home means the home is certified for treatment of rainwater to potable standards.
The Illinois team consisted of 28 students from four different colleges in the University of Illinois (Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences, Business, Engineering, and Fine and Applied Arts) and eight different departments (agricultural and biological engineering, business, architecture, civil engineering, electrical engineering, industrial and general engineering, materials science and engineering, and mechanical engineering).
Matthew McClone, a master’s student in civil engineering, is president of the Illinois Solar Decathlon team and project manager for the Race to Zero competition. He said they began work on the project in September 2014. “Derek Peterson, the associate director of park operations at Allerton Park, approached us to design and build a net zero energy retrofit of a 1940s farmer’s cottage that was slated for demolition. Everyone at Allerton has been very helpful throughout the project.”
The team named their project the Sun Catcher Cottage, and McClone said all 28 students participated in the preparation of the 60-page report (with 500 pages of appendices). The report included full construction documents, financial analysis, and information about the engineering systems.
Kevin Fuller, a junior in civil engineering and treasurer for the organization, said, “You could take the packet and hand it to a contractor and they would have everything they needed to complete the work. Our retrofit design is completely ready to build.”
One of the requirements in the competition was to work with an industry partner. The team worked with Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, a world-class architectural firm based in Chicago.
“They were very helpful during the design process,” said McClone. “We visited their offices twice, and they did a final review of our construction documents and engineering drawings.”
Xinlei Wang, a professor in agricultural and biological engineering, is the team’s faculty advisor. Wang has worked with the Illinois Solar Decathlon team since 2006 on four solar decathlon competitions (U.S. 2007, 2009, 2011, and China 2013) as well as the Race to Zero competition.
“Solar Decathlon is a great opportunity for our students,” said Wang, “and that’s why I’m willing to continue to work with them. We always want to see our students succeed.”
McClone has been involved with the organization since 2012 and said, “The Solar Decathlon in general is the most valuable thing I’ve done in college. The experience is tremendous, it opens doors to work with industry partners, and you meet people you’d never meet otherwise. It was pretty exciting to meet people in leadership at the DOE.”
Fuller agreed, saying, “You can do a lot of theoretical work in college, but doing something this concrete that you know makes an impact can help you understand where you want to go and what you want to do in the area of sustainability.”
The team received funding for the project from a variety of sources, including the Engineering Council, the U of I Student Organization Resource Fee board, and the departments of agricultural and biological engineering, civil and environmental engineering, and electrical and computer engineering.
Illinois Solar Decathlon is currently establishing a team, recruiting advisors, and brainstorming concepts for the Solar Decathlon 2017 competition.
Planting into cool soils: Yes or no?
URBANA, Ill. - While research shows that the last 10 days of April is, on average, the best time to plant corn in Illinois, expectations of below-normal temperatures in most of the state during the last week of April 2015 has some wondering if it makes sense to plant now or to wait until temperatures warm up, said a University of Illinois crop scientist.
“While planting before May 1 almost always yields more than planting later, we don’t always see a good correlation between planting date and yield on a statewide basis,” Nafziger said. “We didn’t plant early in 2014 and had our best yields ever, while we planted very early in 2012 and had the lowest yields in the past 25 years. It is clear that what happens with weather during the season can override when the crop was planted, at least over a large area.”
But for each individual field, Nafziger said growers should try to plant as early as conditions allow. “Even if planting a week or two later would have little effect on yield in that field that year, we need to ‘start so we can finish.’ Getting all fields planted by early May is a goal as we try to maximize yield potential,” he said.
But could this year be an exception, with potential for harm from planting into cool soils in the last week of April, with the weather forecast indicating that temperatures may stay low for the next week?
Nafziger emphasizes the need to wait until soil is dry enough to allow planting into good seedbed and rooting (less compacted) conditions, especially when soils are cool. “We never want to work soils wet and plant under wet soil conditions if we can help it, but we certainly do not want to do that in April, especially when soil temperatures are less than normal,” he said.
“So our first question should be whether or not the soil is dry enough; if the answer is no, then we wait,” he said. “Cool soils dry slowly, and wet soils warm slowly, so waiting might take an extra measure of patience, especially if a neighbor brings out the planter.”
Minimum temperatures 2 inches beneath bare soil in the April 21-23 period were in the low 40s or even upper 30s in the northern half of Illinois, and were only in the mid- to upper 40s in southern Illinois. This is more than 10 degrees cooler than soils were less than a week earlier, and the weather is not predicted to warm very quickly in the coming days.
“If we go by the old standard recommendation that corn should be planted only after the minimum soil temperature 2 inches deep exceeds 50 degrees, we would have planted for perhaps half the days in April through April 19, but none since then,” Nafziger said.
It takes soil temperatures of 50 degrees or above to get the germination process underway, but does this mean avoiding planting corn into soils where temperature at seeding depth averages less than 50 degrees?
“Based on a lot of planting date work, we would say that the danger from planting into cool soils is minimal. It takes about 115 or so growing degree days (GDD, based on air temperature) after planting to get corn plants to emerge, and emergence has usually been good even when it has taken three weeks for this number of GDD to accumulate,” Nafziger explained. “It’s no more common to have stand problems after planting into cool soil than into warmer soil.”
He added that the first planting in the planting date trial was made on April 1, and it emerged more or less on schedule, around April 16. “We can expect corn planted the last week of April to take at least this long to emerge, and longer if temperatures don’t rebound going into May,” he said.
“While we would prefer warmer and relatively dry soils, the next best scenario is having cool and dry soils. Most stand problems occur when soils are warmer, simply because that’s when the plants are trying to grow faster. Still, warm soils help bring the crop up, and we hope that they start to warm soon,” he said.
Heavy rainfall is not predicted for this coming week or so, which is a positive, Nafziger pointed out. “Taking the longer view, temperatures in May will inevitably start to rise at some point in time, and this will speed up emergence. Taking all the factors together, I would suggest that planting proceed as long as soil conditions are good, even if the germination process will be slow due to cool soils in the near term,” he said.
One concern that some have mentioned is “imbibitional chilling injury,” which has been reported when seeds and seedlings take up water that is colder than 40 degrees. Nafziger explained that this can stiffen plant cell membranes and lead to damage, in some cases distorting growth and reducing emergence.
“This has usually been linked with melting snow or very cold rainfall after planting. It’s something to keep in mind, but it has been rare in Illinois. It should probably not keep us from planting in the last week of April. Higher, drier fields are less likely to suffer from this and should be planted first,” Nafziger said.
Corn market expects large supply and weak demand
URBANA, Ill. – Corn prices have come under renewed pressure, with a decline of nearly 20 cents in futures prices over the past week. Those prices are now at the lowest level since October 2014. According to a University of Illinois agricultural economist, old-crop basis continues to strengthen seasonally in most markets.
“The average cash price in central Illinois was 14 cents under July 2015 futures on April 23, compared to 70 cents under in late September and early October 2014,” said Darrel Good. “Low corn prices appear to reflect expectations for a combination of prolonged demand weakness and another year of ample supplies.”
Good explained that expectations for demand weakness center on the ethanol and export markets. “It is generally argued that plateauing domestic ethanol consumption, a stronger dollar that could favor ethanol imports and discourages exports, and low crude oil prices will limit the price of ethanol and the demand for corn,” he said. “Similarly, abundant world grain supplies and a stronger dollar are expected to create a weak demand environment for U.S. corn in the world market. In contrast, domestic feed demand for corn should be supported by ongoing expansion in livestock and poultry numbers, even with some loss of poultry numbers to bird flu.”
The supply of corn for the 2015-16 marketing year will consist of carryover supplies of old-crop corn and the 2015 harvest. The USDA currently projects the carryover of old-crop corn at 1.827 billion bushels.
“The most uncertainty about consumption of corn during the remainder of the 2014-15 marketing year is in the feed and residual category,” Good said. “The combination of expanding livestock numbers and low corn prices should generate a high level of consumption. Currently, the USDA projects use during the last half of the marketing year at 1.569 billion bushels, which would account for 30 percent of the marketing-year total.”
Last year at the same time, the USDA projected that use during the last half of the year would total 1.535 billion bushels and account for 29 percent of the marketing-year total, Good said. Use actually totaled only 1.27 billion bushels, accounting for 25 percent of the marketing-year total. Because there is a fairly large residual component of feed and residual use, total marketing-year use will not be known until the September 1 Grain Stocks report is released. As was the case last year, that report can contain a surprising estimate of old-crop corn stocks.
Good said the potential size of the 2015 harvest will unfold over the next several months. The USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report revealed that 89.199 million acres of corn were intended to be planted this year, 1.398 million fewer acres than planted last year. An estimate of actual planted acres will be available with USDA’s June 30 Acreage report.
From 1996 (the beginning of the freedom to farm era) through 2014, the final estimate of planted acreage of corn exceeded the March intentions estimate in seven years and was less than the March estimate in 12 years. In most years, the difference was within the range of sampling error, estimated at 1 to 3 percent. The exception was 2007 when actual planted acres exceeded intentions by nearly 3.1 million acres. In the remaining 18 years, the difference ranged from 32 thousand to 1.925 million acres and averaged 920 thousand acres (in absolute terms).
“It is interesting that in eight of the 19 years the June acreage estimate failed to correctly identify the direction of the difference between intended and actual acreage,” Good said. “There is already a lot of discussion again this year about the direction and magnitude of the difference between actual and intended acreage of corn. Chances are the difference will not substantially alter production expectations.
“The near-term focus will be on yield prospects for the 2015 corn crop,” Good said. “For now, commentary will focus on the rate of planting progress and yield potential. All else equal, the larger percentage of the crop that is planted in a timely fashion, the higher the U.S. average yield potential. However, all else is rarely equal, with the magnitude of yield ultimately determined by summer weather. The generally late planted crop of 2009, for example, experienced a new record yield while the extremely early planted crop of 2012 experienced the lowest yield in 17 years.”
According to Good, unless an unusually large or small percentage of the crop is planted late this year, yield expectations should continue to focus on trend value in the range of 164 to 165 bushels. The USDA will report an expected yield in the May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That yield expectation is based on a weather-adjusted trend model that reflects expected planting progress at mid-May.
“Uncertainty about the size of the 2015 corn crop will continue for the next few months,” Good said. “Similarly, the strength of corn demand will be revealed over time. In addition to the weekly pace of exports and ethanol production, the USDA’s estimate of June 1 stocks that reveals third-quarter feed and residual use will be important indicators of demand strength. The expected June announcement by EPA in regard to biofuels mandates will also be potentially important for corn demand. Current prices appear to reflect minimum production risk and surprisingly weak demand prospects,” he said.